The Budget

[mkhammer]

Mate what you seem to be failing to get...cos of all the doom and gloom stuff...IS.............we are getting it under,getting control
of it,learning how to handle it...
We may get rid of it...which is my take,or we will may have to learn to live with it,as we do other Viruses....mutating Viruses..
as Flu is and does...every year the Flu jab is slightly different,depending on which variant of it is mostly around at the time.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/eu-re ... omposition.

So this thing may well still be with us...and maybe Masks will be seen a lot more,first few months will be strange,till
prob after Xmas...but a normality WILL slowly return...there will be scaremongering on the way..with the different Variant
thing etc...but that's what our News Corporations/Media outlets do, Bad news gets attention..positive doesn't so much.

We've all been thru absolute shit with this thing,some have lost loved ones,jobs..mental wellbeing...shit load of things..
It's time to be positive mate...

So with the country's schools opening up during the next 2 weeks and the enabling of full production of the little germ factories that follow are we back into a cycle of further lockdowns was the question.

Because the vaccine program which is going really well btw in numbers, only confers 10% protection against the dominant circulating variant.

This is where the PM is meant to step in and make a broadcast to the nation and inform what his government has planned for the immediate,short-tem and long term future. What is known in the trade as manufacturing consent.

Or is this all in hand and contained in the unspecified matrix of the broad spectrum roadmap.

I was expecting a bit more meat on the bones to be honest. Or just a reason for some optimistic caution.

The question is BD do we want a pathway out of lockdown or not...do you want to wait longer ,cos it seems so..
We HAVE to get back up and running...that's not even an arguable question...we've put things in place to do so,with
lockdowns ..Jabs etc,nows the time to do it..start moving along again.
There WILL be an increase in cases as we come out ..schools going back ,meeting up again,thats a given,but it will
be manageable and in control,and will slowly hopefully dissipate.

Schools are fundamental to that...kids need kids,education,social interaction...also allows the next step for parents,
returning to work etc..and historically,what little info we have ...infections are extremely low in schools...there will be
cases and some schools will shut again...but we have to go thru that for a while,doesn't mean it's the wrong path..

Not quite getting the 10% Dominant thing BD......think it's 50/60% first week then rises to between 70/90%
protection against "Serious" problems with the Common or Garden Covid...poss less with other strains of it..
Which at moment are contained....

When you have a map and a route...sometimes a road is closed and you have to take a different route to get to
the same place...nothings writ in stone...we'll have to take a different road no doubt at some point...but the
main thing is we will get there.

Why has this become the Covid Thread...............I'm dying to piss you all off with my take on the Budget....

[BlackDiamond]

So with the country's schools opening up during the next 2 weeks and the enabling of full production of the little germ factories that follow are we back into a cycle of further lockdowns was the question.

Because the vaccine program which is going really well btw in numbers, only confers 10% protection against the dominant circulating variant.

This is where the PM is meant to step in and make a broadcast to the nation and inform what his government has planned for the immediate,short-tem and long term future. What is known in the trade as manufacturing consent.

Or is this all in hand and contained in the unspecified matrix of the broad spectrum roadmap.

I was expecting a bit more meat on the bones to be honest. Or just a reason for some optimistic caution.

The question is BD do we want a pathway out of lockdown or not...do you want to wait longer ,cos it seems so..
We HAVE to get back up and running...that's not even an arguable question...we've put things in place to do so,with
lockdowns ..Jabs etc,nows the time to do it..start moving along again.
There WILL be an increase in cases as we come out ..schools going back ,meeting up again,thats a given,but it will
be manageable and in control,and will slowly hopefully dissipate.

Schools are fundamental to that...kids need kids,education,social interaction...also allows the next step for parents,
returning to work etc..and historically,what little info we have ...infections are extremely low in schools...there will be
cases and some schools will shut again...but we have to go thru that for a while,doesn't mean it's the wrong path..

Not quite getting the 10% Dominant thing BD......think it's 50/60% first week then rises to between 70/90%
protection against "Serious" problems with the Common or Garden Covid...poss less with other strains of it..
Which at moment are contained....

When you have a map and a route...sometimes a road is closed and you have to take a different route to get to
the same place...nothings writ in stone...we'll have to take a different road no doubt at some point...but the
main thing is we will get there.

Why has this become the Covid Thread...............I'm dying to piss you all off with my take on the Budget....

Everybody wants to come out of lockdown. Tomorrow would be good.

The issue is can you come out and stay out.

And the problem is hospitalisations not death. Two very different things, let's deal with the easy one first.

The ONS have analysed surplus deaths to the expected yearly norm and focused on those. These being designated as died with Covid.
It is not possible to clearly attribute Covid as the cause but we could allow that covid contributed.

The ONS states that MOST of the surplus deaths were patients who would have died within months even without Covid. So in real terms covid is not the issue in most cases. And most cases being 90%. It is the issue in 10% of cases and that is unfortunately very tragic. However we know heart disease,diabetes,cancer kills more. And we don't lockdown for those - mainly because they are not contagious or more specifically transmissable.

Which brings us to the No.1 reason for lockdowns and the ONLY reason. Hospitalistions.

A society is judged on how good it's hospitals are run. And a government are judged on how good it's society is run.

Therefore a government can't allow it's hospitals to ever fail. To do so means disaster politically. The end.

So with a circulating virus that evades the current vaccination protection and more people planning on mixing with each other, we might expect things to get slightly worse rather than slightly better. As an observation.

We could of course just say fuck it, don't worry get happy and everybody deserves to live their life the way they choose - but there is always some other guy stopping that isn't there...

[mkhammer]

The question is BD do we want a pathway out of lockdown or not...do you want to wait longer ,cos it seems so..
We HAVE to get back up and running...that's not even an arguable question...we've put things in place to do so,with
lockdowns ..Jabs etc,nows the time to do it..start moving along again.
There WILL be an increase in cases as we come out ..schools going back ,meeting up again,thats a given,but it will
be manageable and in control,and will slowly hopefully dissipate.

Schools are fundamental to that...kids need kids,education,social interaction...also allows the next step for parents,
returning to work etc..and historically,what little info we have ...infections are extremely low in schools...there will be
cases and some schools will shut again...but we have to go thru that for a while,doesn't mean it's the wrong path..

Not quite getting the 10% Dominant thing BD......think it's 50/60% first week then rises to between 70/90%
protection against "Serious" problems with the Common or Garden Covid...poss less with other strains of it..
Which at moment are contained....

When you have a map and a route...sometimes a road is closed and you have to take a different route to get to
the same place...nothings writ in stone...we'll have to take a different road no doubt at some point...but the
main thing is we will get there.

Why has this become the Covid Thread...............I'm dying to piss you all off with my take on the Budget....

Everybody wants to come out of lockdown. Tomorrow would be good.

The issue is can you come out and stay out.

And the problem is hospitalisations not death. Two very different things, let's deal with the easy one first.

The ONS have analysed surplus deaths to the expected yearly norm and focused on those. These being designated as died with Covid.
It is not possible to clearly attribute Covid as the cause but we could allow that covid contributed.

The ONS states that MOST of the surplus deaths were patients who would have died within months even without Covid. So in real terms covid is not the issue in most cases. And most cases being 90%. It is the issue in 10% of cases and that is unfortunately very tragic. However we know heart disease,diabetes,cancer kills more. And we don't lockdown for those - mainly because they are not contagious or more specifically transmissable.

Which brings us to the No.1 reason for lockdowns and the ONLY reason. Hospitalistions.

A society is judged on how good it's hospitals are run. And a government are judged on how good it's society is run.

Therefore a government can't allow it's hospitals to ever fail. To do so means disaster politically. The end.

So with a circulating virus that evades the current vaccination protection and more people planning on mixing with each other, we might expect things to get slightly worse rather than slightly better. As an observation.

We could of course just say fuck it, don't worry get happy and everybody deserves to live their life the way they choose - but there is always some other guy stopping that isn't there...

All we can do is set a strategy up and try and implement it..using the info we have and treatments we have gained...
and use that info as logically as you can...we all know we can't stay the way we are...but neither can we open up the
boozers tomorrow.So slowly logically open things up bit by bit.
I like breaking things down to odds and percentages...so I'll go 95% this strategy will work...whether that's a get shot
of it altogether or a live with it thing...no one can call that yet..but both see us back on track again.
But 95 aint a 100....sometimes a 20/1 beats an odds on Fav...nothings guaranteed ...this shit came outta nowhere,
poss something similar can happen again.................Be helpful if China let us know WTF is going on,but that's another
argument...more a political one.

The Mantra from Boris/Tories/Experts from the very start was "Protect the NHS" and save lives..that was the focal point.
No measures in place...more people get ill...more people in hospital...beds get full,more people staying at home
while desperately unwell...passing it on the family members...you then have an out of control wildfire of it.
So Yes Lockdowns were to Stop Hospitals overcrowding.

Look at some more Stats BD Covid became our biggest killer...and the National Deaths in 2020 is higher than the average
by a large amount....the excess death this year equates to roughly the same as the extra Covid related deaths...
Covid caused a lot more people to die this year...impossible to argue against.

Covid causes death more so from the vulnerable among us...yes absolutely..but we cant go...oh well thats life.

Some deaths have Covid as cause,when Its actually been Pneumonia...the Covid has caused Pneumonia....
but it has to be documented as Covid,so we understand the effect it's having...

[Ironworksfc]

Everybody wants to come out of lockdown. Tomorrow would be good.

The issue is can you come out and stay out.

And the problem is hospitalisations not death. Two very different things, let's deal with the easy one first.

The ONS have analysed surplus deaths to the expected yearly norm and focused on those. These being designated as died with Covid.
It is not possible to clearly attribute Covid as the cause but we could allow that covid contributed.

The ONS states that MOST of the surplus deaths were patients who would have died within months even without Covid. So in real terms covid is not the issue in most cases. And most cases being 90%. It is the issue in 10% of cases and that is unfortunately very tragic. However we know heart disease,diabetes,cancer kills more. And we don't lockdown for those - mainly because they are not contagious or more specifically transmissable.

Which brings us to the No.1 reason for lockdowns and the ONLY reason. Hospitalistions.

A society is judged on how good it's hospitals are run. And a government are judged on how good it's society is run.

Therefore a government can't allow it's hospitals to ever fail. To do so means disaster politically. The end.

So with a circulating virus that evades the current vaccination protection and more people planning on mixing with each other, we might expect things to get slightly worse rather than slightly better. As an observation.

We could of course just say fuck it, don't worry get happy and everybody deserves to live their life the way they choose - but there is always some other guy stopping that isn't there...

All we can do is set a strategy up and try and implement it..using the info we have and treatments we have gained...
and use that info as logically as you can...we all know we can't stay the way we are...but neither can we open up the
boozers tomorrow.So slowly logically open things up bit by bit.
I like breaking things down to odds and percentages...so I'll go 95% this strategy will work...whether that's a get shot
of it altogether or a live with it thing...no one can call that yet..but both see us back on track again.
But 95 aint a 100....sometimes a 20/1 beats an odds on Fav...nothings guaranteed ...this shit came outta nowhere,
poss something similar can happen again.................Be helpful if China let us know WTF is going on,but that's another
argument...more a political one.

The Mantra from Boris/Tories/Experts from the very start was "Protect the NHS" and save lives..that was the focal point.
No measures in place...more people get ill...more people in hospital...beds get full,more people staying at home
while desperately unwell...passing it on the family members...you then have an out of control wildfire of it.
So Yes Lockdowns were to Stop Hospitals overcrowding.

Look at some more Stats BD Covid became our biggest killer...and the National Deaths in 2020 is higher than the average
by a large amount....the excess death this year equates to roughly the same as the extra Covid related deaths...
Covid caused a lot more people to die this year...impossible to argue against.

Covid causes death more so from the vulnerable among us...yes absolutely..but we cant go...oh well thats life.

Some deaths have Covid as cause,when Its actually been Pneumonia...the Covid has caused Pneumonia....
but it has to be documented as Covid,so we understand the effect it's having...

The statics that you keep quoting only look at one thing

Total number of deaths

If you add into the equation population size then these statics become no worse than other peak years.

A saying that I've never really liked before;

"Think outside the box" has never been more apt.

[Ironworksfc]

[mkhammer]

All we can do is set a strategy up and try and implement it..using the info we have and treatments we have gained...
and use that info as logically as you can...we all know we can't stay the way we are...but neither can we open up the
boozers tomorrow.So slowly logically open things up bit by bit.
I like breaking things down to odds and percentages...so I'll go 95% this strategy will work...whether that's a get shot
of it altogether or a live with it thing...no one can call that yet..but both see us back on track again.
But 95 aint a 100....sometimes a 20/1 beats an odds on Fav...nothings guaranteed ...this shit came outta nowhere,
poss something similar can happen again.................Be helpful if China let us know WTF is going on,but that's another
argument...more a political one.

The Mantra from Boris/Tories/Experts from the very start was "Protect the NHS" and save lives..that was the focal point.
No measures in place...more people get ill...more people in hospital...beds get full,more people staying at home
while desperately unwell...passing it on the family members...you then have an out of control wildfire of it.
So Yes Lockdowns were to Stop Hospitals overcrowding.

Look at some more Stats BD Covid became our biggest killer...and the National Deaths in 2020 is higher than the average
by a large amount....the excess death this year equates to roughly the same as the extra Covid related deaths...
Covid caused a lot more people to die this year...impossible to argue against.

Covid causes death more so from the vulnerable among us...yes absolutely..but we cant go...oh well thats life.

Some deaths have Covid as cause,when Its actually been Pneumonia...the Covid has caused Pneumonia....
but it has to be documented as Covid,so we understand the effect it's having...

The statics that you keep quoting only look at one thing

Total number of deaths

If you add into the equation population size then these statics become no worse than other peak years.

A saying that I've never really liked before;

"Think outside the box" has never been more apt.

Mate do yourself a favour..and do some unbiased research and reading on the matter....I've put bits and pieces up,
which you recognize...then Ignore..you just dig out stuff you want to see..to back up your "Agenda"....
Have opinions by all means..
But you ignore proven acknowledged facts you'll lose a discussion all day long.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-fact ... SKBN28V2T2
Need to move away from the ONS stats..they are not up to date,or inclusive at moment.
.
You do realize,you are saying Covid has made no difference to this country and rest of the world....mate that's crazy..

No mate..in this case we, us, you, need to think "Inside" the box and deal with the facts that are facing us..

Theres a little hope for you tho...least you mentioned PEAK years

[Ironworksfc]

The statics that you keep quoting only look at one thing

Total number of deaths

If you add into the equation population size then these statics become no worse than other peak years.

A saying that I've never really liked before;

"Think outside the box" has never been more apt.

Mate do yourself a favour..and do some unbiased research and reading on the matter....I've put bits and pieces up,
which you recognize...then Ignore..you just dig out stuff you want to see..to back up your "Agenda"....
Have opinions by all means..
But you ignore proven acknowledged facts you'll lose a discussion all day long.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-fact ... SKBN28V2T2
Need to move away from the ONS stats..they are not up to date,or inclusive at moment.
.
You do realize,you are saying Covid has made no difference to this country and rest of the world....mate that's crazy..

No mate..in this case we, us, you, need to think "Inside" the box and deal with the facts that are facing us..

Theres a little hope for you tho...least you mentioned PEAK years

Missed the point again

Another pointless measure of you just take yearly deaths in isolation, you need to factor in population size, when you do, last year is not really an exception.

It's a bit like keeping the country locked down due to total number of cases, given the vast majority don't even get ill. Utterly backwards and wrong.

[mkhammer]

Mate do yourself a favour..and do some unbiased research and reading on the matter....I've put bits and pieces up,
which you recognize...then Ignore..you just dig out stuff you want to see..to back up your "Agenda"....
Have opinions by all means..
But you ignore proven acknowledged facts you'll lose a discussion all day long.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-fact ... SKBN28V2T2
Need to move away from the ONS stats..they are not up to date,or inclusive at moment.
.
You do realize,you are saying Covid has made no difference to this country and rest of the world....mate that's crazy..

No mate..in this case we, us, you, need to think "Inside" the box and deal with the facts that are facing us..

Theres a little hope for you tho...least you mentioned PEAK years

Missed the point again

Another pointless measure of you just take yearly deaths in isolation, you need to factor in population size, when you do, last year is not really an exception.

It's a bit like keeping the country locked down due to total number of cases, given the vast majority don't even get ill. Utterly backwards and wrong.

Can assure you mate I don't miss any points...you just have severe tunnel vision over this mate...

Population...increases annually in the UK Approx 0.7% (actually is dropping I read somewhere)
The increase in death rate for last year is higher than the Norm, the Average anywhere from 7/10%
30,000- 60,000,depending on who's figures you use and at what time they were taken,and how they were accrued.
We didn't have a population explosion,which would be the only way to justify what you are saying mate.

How and why this years death toll is higher...we can argue about...but not the actual figures.

More people have died this year than previously.And they haven't all been run over by buses............

How many cases and deaths do you think we would have had with no precautions....can tell you mate, you wouldn't
have the spin you've got on it now,and our conversations on here would be totally different.
Because we would be in shit street..
Every Country in the world has resorted to "LockDowns" of some kind,because thats the logical approach...but you say
we shouldn't have bothered and Ignored it and cracked on...........C'mon mate...


https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/pres ... d-response

[Ironworksfc]

Missed the point again

Another pointless measure of you just take yearly deaths in isolation, you need to factor in population size, when you do, last year is not really an exception.

It's a bit like keeping the country locked down due to total number of cases, given the vast majority don't even get ill. Utterly backwards and wrong.

Can assure you mate I don't miss any points...you just have severe tunnel vision over this mate...

Population...increases annually in the UK Approx 0.7% (actually is dropping I read somewhere)
The increase in death rate for last year is higher than the Norm, the Average anywhere from 7/10%
30,000- 60,000,depending on who's figures you use and at what time they were taken,and how they were accrued.
We didn't have a population explosion,which would be the only way to justify what you are saying mate.

How and why this years death toll is higher...we can argue about...but not the actual figures.

More people have died this year than previously.And they haven't all been run over by buses............

How many cases and deaths do you think we would have had with no precautions....can tell you mate, you wouldn't
have the spin you've got on it now,and our conversations on here would be totally different.
Because we would be in shit street..
Every Country in the world has resorted to "LockDowns" of some kind,because thats the logical approach...but you say
we shouldn't have bothered and Ignored it and cracked on...........C'mon mate...


https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/pres ... d-response

You are missing the point and it's pretty fucking frustrating when you accuse me of tunnel vision.

I will do child steps in the hope you can understand

Last year more people died than in previous years taken on one number only, total number of deaths.

If you go back through previous years and apply the population size to each year you get a percentage of population that has died.

Last year was not particularly spectacular against many other peak years.

It's not rocket science, stop watching the BBC.

[Whiskyman]

Can assure you mate I don't miss any points...you just have severe tunnel vision over this mate...

Population...increases annually in the UK Approx 0.7% (actually is dropping I read somewhere)
The increase in death rate for last year is higher than the Norm, the Average anywhere from 7/10%
30,000- 60,000,depending on who's figures you use and at what time they were taken,and how they were accrued.
We didn't have a population explosion,which would be the only way to justify what you are saying mate.

How and why this years death toll is higher...we can argue about...but not the actual figures.

More people have died this year than previously.And they haven't all been run over by buses............

How many cases and deaths do you think we would have had with no precautions....can tell you mate, you wouldn't
have the spin you've got on it now,and our conversations on here would be totally different.
Because we would be in shit street..
Every Country in the world has resorted to "LockDowns" of some kind,because thats the logical approach...but you say
we shouldn't have bothered and Ignored it and cracked on...........C'mon mate...


https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/pres ... d-response

You are missing the point and it's pretty fucking frustrating when you accuse me of tunnel vision.

I will do child steps in the hope you can understand

Last year more people died than in previous years taken on one number only, total number of deaths.

If you go back through previous years and apply the population size to each year you get a percentage of population that has died.

Last year was not particularly spectacular against many other peak years.

It's not rocket science, stop watching the BBC.

And we should not forget that we have an ageing population as the so called post war "baby boomers" generation reaches their mid 70s. I will suggest, however unpalatable it may be to the snowflake nanny brigade, that older people, and I'm not too far off that myself, tend to drop off their perches more frequently than younger, healthier specimens.